Draft2026Measuring performance

Counting What Counts: Misaligned Performance Measures, State-Dependent Value, and the Prediction of Future Performance

Niklas Wallmeier

Under the usual rule a win earns 3 points, a draw 1 and a loss 0. Goal tallies treat every goal alike; the paper values each goal by the points it adds to the result.

In short

Adding up output misleads when a unit of output is worth more in some states than in others. A framework for aligned performance measures, tested on football data; the first of three papers.

Results

Adding up output misleads when a unit of output is worth more in some states than in others.
In football, a goal at 0–0 turns a draw into a win and adds 2 points; at 0–1 it adds 1; at 3–0 it adds nothing.
An aligned measure values each goal by the points it adds to the result.

Cite

Niklas Wallmeier (2026). “Counting What Counts: Misaligned Performance Measures, State-Dependent Value, and the Prediction of Future Performance.” Work in progress.

@unpublished{wallmeier2026counting,
  author = {Wallmeier, Niklas},
  title = {{Counting What Counts: Misaligned Performance Measures, State-Dependent Value, and the Prediction of Future Performance}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Work in progress}
}